Brexit never gonnae happen they way you think!

[celticthebhoys585]

Never in a way you brexiters thought it would. All the chamelons have been exposed,tight majority vote.Country and goverment in chaos.

It's the money men that will decide as always! What made you think they'd let the people decide-never have done in centuries!

[upthecreekyetagain]

What would be interesting is if/when Parliament votes against a ‘no deal’ Brexit - the UK then asks for a short extension which is turned down by the EU27 - The EU offers either a long extension, a minimum of two years with ‘penalties’, or no extension.

This would then trigger a number of votes in Parliament to decide between, ‘no-deal’, ‘Theresa May’s deal’ or stay in the EU for at least two years on worse terms than we currently enjoy.

[celticthebhoys585]

As I said previously 2 year+ snip. 

If fact lets just get the lot all sorted in one foul swoop.

1. Extension of 2 years to get things sorted once and for all.

2. GE and Scottish parliament elections

3. Scottish independence and Irish re-unification referedums

4. England leaves UK and EU with tail between its legs and drags Wales with them.

5. Tell the brexiteers we left with no deal and give them blue passport covers ,free passes to war museums 

6. Give them some ration books for food and medicines

7. With any luck that should do it and we all get on with life in a new set of Islands called Former UK Isles

[cee-dee]

The thing is, what's the point of it all because the EU says the deal is the deal and there won't be any change. So a change of PM won't make any difference.

What some of those MPs are after is overturning what the people voted for = to leave the EU. Those remainers want to put every possible obstacle in the way of the leaving process.

The EU want us to stay in because of the money they rake in and also they want to "keep control". They know full well that if the UK leaves, it's the thin end of the wedge, others will leave too.

The EU know that if a chunk of those currently "in" leave, they'll form their own trade agreements without paying anything in to the bureaucratically top heavy and wasteful EU.

[upthecreekyetagain]

I agree that a change of PM won’t make any difference but a General Election would still be an option.  The electorate would expect the parties to make clear their intent in their manifestos and candidates would be campaigning on that.  For example I would expect the Labour Party to be campaigning on the basis of a very soft Brexit with the UK remaining in the customs union and the single market.  The Conservatives would have a more difficult choice deciding what to include in their manifesto, current deal, no deal or remain.  A failure to make a firm commitment would I believe damage their electoral fortunes.

A referendum would be a simple choice, exit with no deal or remain.

What would be pointless is an extension with neither an election nor a referendum being held during the extension period.

[cee-dee]

I agree. There's no point in an extension. The EU has made it clear that the present deal is IT and that's that.

So, there's only a simple choice, stay in or get out.

[astrologica]

Creepy..we have already had a referendum which gave Parliament a clear choice to follow. We don’t need another one.

[astrologica]

Bit of a typo there..Creeky!

[upthecreekyetagain]

It’s easy to say we don’t need another referendum but we patently do!

No majority will ever be reached in the current Parliament when there are more than two potential options.  Something has to be done to break the impasse.  Crying we have had a referendum we don’t need another is pointless, it won’t make the MPs change their stance on what that means.

A referendum or a General Election is the only way to break the deadlock otherwise this is going to drag on for years.

[cee-dee]

The EU says it "Cannot go any further" and they can't see any point in extending the talks beyond the 29th March.

So, the refurendum vote was to leave but the remainers are determined to overturn that come what may?

The remainers idea is to waffle on and on, and prolong the agony with all sorts of delaying tactics hoping for another referendum.

So, if we have another referendum and that result is to leave, will they keep on and on until everyone is heartily sick of the whole thing and keep asking for more referendums unt they get a result to stay?

Didn't they do something similar in Ireland?

The timing of leaving the EU has come at a handy time for some companies who're facing reduced sales so they can blame Brexit for the falling off of their sales and when they reduce employees or shut their factories, they can throw in the Brexit angle as the reason for it.

[upthecreekyetagain]

It’s not the ‘remainers’ on their own that are preventing Brexit take place - a huge majority in Parliament voted against the deal which would have ensured Brexit happened.  This majority included lots of so called Brexiteers of all persuasions including members of the ERG.

If TM’s deal had been accepted we would be looking forward to life outside the EU in a couple of weeks time.  

[upthecreekyetagain]

The effectiveness of any referendum depends on the question.

Stay in the EU?

Leave the EU?

                     If leave:-

                             On offered deal?

                             Without a deal?

[upthecreekyetagain]

So a majority, albeit small, decide to reject a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and a larger majority vote against a short delay in leaving the EU in order to  organise a no-deal Brexit.

So it looks like leaving without any agreement is now off the table.

I’d expect TM to put her ‘deal’ back to Parliament and if that fails again then expect to see a request for a long delay in leaving the EU - and that will be down to the hard line Brexiteers every much as it’s down to ‘remainers’.

[cee-dee]

The next step?:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47562995

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47529293

[cee-dee]

1/ The EU says the deal currently on the table is the only deal there's going to be and there will be no more alteraations.

2/ The house rejected the deal on the table.

3/ The house rejected  a "No-deal" exit.

WHAT on earth can anyone do?

Putting it simply, if you're trying to buy or sell something and if the two parties are so far apart, one wanting too much and the other not willing to pay enough, what can be done? = Nothing so both walk away without a deal?

There's really no point in one party refusing to accept a "walk-away" situation? You can't force the other party to continue negotiating if they've said they're not willing to go any further?

[upthecreekyetagain]

A long delay in leaving during which time there will be a General Election and/or referendum.

[upthecreekyetagain]

You’re missing something in that ‘argument’ - the status quo.

We’re not trying to buy or sell anything, we are in a contract/treaty.  If one party wants to cancel a contract but the two parties to the contract can’t come to a mutual agreement then the status quo persists and the contract remains in force.

[cee-dee]

Ah, but there's an "agreement" to end the contract without an "agreement"?

[cee-dee]

A page from 2016:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36634702/article-50-the-simplest-explanation-youll-find

[upthecreekyetagain]

Looks like TM’s deal has got a chance - the ERG and other hard line Brexiteers have indicated they may go with the deal now that a ‘no deal’ exit is off the table.  If they do support the deal it will attract other Brexiteers, including those in the Labour Party, to support the deal rather than face a long delay in leaving the EU.

[astrologica]

Mr Farage is talking to his friends in Europe to see if he can persuade them to vote down an extension to article 50. It only needs one (Italy?) and the extension request is scuppered. At present we are still leaving on March 29th with no deal, as the votes this evening are not enshrined in law.