16-04-2013 9:41 AM
16-04-2013 10:03 PM
My dad is not "rich" and if he didn't receive his state pension it wouldn't be the end of the world.....but as I am currently out of work and receiving a lowly £70 JSA, my dad bless him uses some of his state pension to help me out.
16-04-2013 11:19 PM
The country is not bankrupt, the real problem is cash flow.
Certainly the level of debt during the depression years of the 20s and 30s were higher than the current 75% - the big differences though are that during the depression our commitments were so much lower in terms of a welfare system and borrowing was virtually nil.
Compare that with the situation today where we are borrowing an additional 8% of GDP each year and the welfare budget represents about a third of GDP - in the 20s the welfare budget was a mere 5% of GDP.
This means that the option for real cutbacks to control the debt does mean that on the current scale the welfare costs would increase dramatically.
If international interest rise, as they almost certainly will, then gilts issued at current low rates would fall in value and as a country we could buy them back at below capital value but of course we would have to borrow in order to do so, issuing gilts at a higher rate. Very much like an individual paying a higher interest rate on one credit card to make a payment on the credit card.
What happens then is that credit ratings fall and interest rates required to sell further gilts increase above the international norm making servicing the existing debt yet more expensive and round and round it goes until borrowing is impossible because there are no buyers for the gilts.
This is exactly what happened in Greece
So what is the answer? I'm not sure there is one, the two biggest government commitments to public service pensions and the state pension have to be prime targets.
17-04-2013 1:52 AM
Cash flow is a problem when you don't have it; that isn't the case currently, nor are there indications that it will be so in the short or intermediate term. So it isn't.
The aim was to put a more balanced view than a debt version of typhoid mary
The depression years public debt was about twice as high in % terms of gdp 150% v something like 70 odd%as it currently is with relatively less social spending. The state spending budget is higher because of things like the NHS, state pensions for an ageing population, etc these are areas of spending for individuals undertaken by the state.Some of the welfare spending is a state subsidy to industry on a non means tested basis in the form of low paid workers. Not sure the point you are trying to make but if it's that our commitments are more, thats a reflection of where we are today v 1930 obviously If you are saying that somehow limits the ability to cut v 1930 im not sure I would agree
cutting back on a lower percentage budgets means you have less absolute ability and option to cut back as far as state spending goes in that area because it's a smaller figure in real terms. You would then have to look at other areas of expenditure to cut, and where the money was going, or ultimately to increase revenue at a time when it will be falling to plug any shortfall, which means increasing taxes. But lets be clear about this, the answer is really growth and that doesn't primarily come from austerity measures. It may eventually arrive despite them
The depression years of the thirties didn't end because of austerity measures, they ended because of the war and gov pushing debt up to 250% of gdp and the expenditures that followed
We managed to recover from the 30's long depression and the war to eventually the 'you've never had it so good. super mac quote, though some say he missed a bit of punctuation after 'it'
Some of public borrowings for market intervention and the current rates of interest are to try to induce Industry and consumers to spend any cash funds and so hopefully increase economic activity. The cost of that policy has partly been to help inflate property prices, which in turn may result in higher HB social costs. Property in terms of individual homes are assets which in general attract little tax overall, this at the expense of savers, the sort I think MT suggested encouraging but whose savings currently will yield little, and also at the expense of annuities and therefore cash based pensions because of low interest rates
Whilst at some future date interests rates may rise, currently the BoE are talking about negative rates. I believe I already clearly pointed out the higher interest cost lol, in fact there was a provision for that that Osborne looted to help meet his targets. The point was to illustrate that debt changes both with rates and economic growth and about it's nature especially in low interest rate environments, it was not a suggestion of short term refinancing at every point just to shuffle debt figures for expenditure costs for public window dressing
The credit card analogy isn't correct btw since the face value of the debt would have been reduced though the interest rate to pay it had increased
Private capital costs incidentally are almost always higher so moving public financing initiatives to private companies consequently means a higher interest cost to the taxpayer than it would under gov borrowings, but politically gov borrowing is seen as norty, regardless of debt levels, so joe public pay more on interest rates
Greece is not the UK. It never was. One problem for shared currency countries, is that currently they do not share one economic agenda or policy.Whilst a common currency with Germany may be reassuring it does not come with the attached underlying German economy, just conditions on future borrowings from EU source funds.
The answer is really growth, unfortunately you don't get it from cutting, but cutting is the norm because it's expedient, overall politically safe, and less risky, just painful for recipients, and lost growth; meanwhile the Treasury hopes either for an external stimulus or an improved change in investment and consumption spending, somewhat against the odds.
17-04-2013 6:10 AM
If they paid in, they should get it, but only the basic pension
But should be taxed on ALL the extras
Winter fuel allowance etc etc
17-04-2013 8:22 AM
A pensioner earning £70,000 might well be paying the government in tax over £17,000 pa. and might well defer their pension anyway.
17-04-2013 9:04 AM
I have to live on £500 a month or £6000 a year.
If they paid in, they should get it, but only the basic pension
But should be taxed on ALL the extras
Winter fuel allowance etc etc
17-04-2013 9:46 AM
That was an interesting read salford. Money and how it works on a ''I only owe'' system pretty well sums up how UK went American during you know who's reign ,but do you not think there is absolutely no need for this country to be in any debt at this point in history ? I do ,and this is where I don't understand Thatcher,Blair and now Alliance and joe public accepting the way these have supposedly governed our country.
We are bankrupt in all but name and as creeky says it's a fine line now to becoming a disaster.
Why?..,well Them did it lol and it needs addressing at least 30 yrs ago. Who has been pocketing and profiteering out of this ? 1000 people 10,000 ? what about the other 40 million who pay in ? 'all their own fault for just being worker mugs and not ruthless investors' (Hi maggie)
I say if the system works on a 'you all pay in' and it does ,the govs are your investees and you want to hear about your returns not ha ha we have this huge but manageable debt so long as we take more off you,but I'm ok personally I made good use of this system and your cash flow your fault you aint got one .
annd this is the point, What the hell did she turn the governments into 'self profiting selfish urrrggghs for and not an institution that works for its benefactors ie tax payer ?....self ,pure and simple .
Norway keeps popping up as an example to good folk in charge (i agree) we are an example of greed and self which laughably is the very thing we are told we join wars to oppose .If you believe that you actually will believe anything. You can actually 'con all the people all the time,cant you if you don't give a .... about them or what they think. RIP maggie 🙂
Ps not forgot caution,just haven't found it myself yet 🙂
17-04-2013 9:55 AM
ps Govs are example of self and greed ,the people of this country are top draw opposites of that the most of them and will help anyone out...this is why and how they take the pee out of us all.
17-04-2013 3:45 PM
If you think this is bad, try reading http://www.moneyweek.com/endofbritain