@vintagewatchpart wrote:
Google trends measures how much a topic is searched for or talked about over time.
Yes if everyone suddenly started bookmarking eBay and no longer searched for it it would result in a decline, but why would only those with an interest in eBay be doing it and not other e commerce sites.
You can use it to search for any topic at all as well as brand names such as knitting, how to cut down a tree or climate change.
This coupled with active user data is a clear indicator of decline that shows no signs of getting better.
Thank you for the information. I absolutely wasn't being a smart @rse (although I was probably being a tad lazy not looking into it myself). I was just mulling it over. As an analyst (old job) I knew to expect some of the bigger, longer-established firms (say in retail) to keep losing 'market share' over time. Of course some buck the trend. But on the whole each new entrant to a market wins 'big interest' initially, which then peters off, but some people love it and swap for good. Take clothing... M&S was the in thing at one point, along comes the likes of H&M... made a massive furore in the market... then it settled down again. M&S has constantly fought back and refused to give up selling clothes despite using food to steady its ship.
Etsy is a another example nearer to home. Everyone thought it was a rival to ebay. Now it's just a small competitor. Vinted is another... which is still putting up a big fight and is undoubtedly causing ebay a headache. But I know for a fact that ebay is pushing back hard. Barely a week goes by without eBay checking am I happy. What can they do to make me stay.
My point is, I expect ebay to show a slide. Because it was in so early and got so big. Plus (for your chart) it is a household verb... just 'ebay it'. If any sites do get bookmarked - or simply never searched because everyone knows what they stand for - it will be Amazon and eBay. (And yeah, Temu is getting there)
So - I agree this is one hell of a year. I have a sales decline of 19% ytd y-o-y. And a profit decline of 12%. I did expect this. Every single year I fight back over the summer, pay huge PL fees, and keep my sales higher. Then come December my back is up against the VAT wall and I'm turning down sales at better margins. So this year, with other commitments in the spring/summer as well, I told myself I would keep PL low (in fact I have have them turned off 90% of the time - thanks @vintagewatchpart for your thread on this),; the plan being to make sure my rolling sales were at @75k when I hit September. So far I am 100% on track for part one of this strategy (which also involved tactical buying of different stock but this post is already too long for that). Whether part two of the strategy will go to plan - and I sell well Sept-Jan to make up the deficit in extrememly high margin stock - is still to be seen.
I suppose what I think is eBay will constantly be seeing its market share decline. It will constantly be re-positioning itself to attract buyers. I suspect it is trying to offer a high end pre-loved market vs Vinted (hence its interest in little old me). It knows people get fed up with rubbish Vinted buyer protection and will drift away unless they can fix that. So at the moment I see a cost of living drought, worsened (in my category) by the cheap prices on Vinted and the fact Vinted is still more of a Johnny come lately. But my money is on eBay pulling through. (but then I've been called relentlessly upbeat... @padanpcparts )
Ebay will turn its attention to other categories when it sees there is money to be made there. I have thoughts on that too. But sorry, this post is too darn long.
Just food for thought I hope x
