would i have any recourse to ask for a refund from ebay/paypal?
This would depend on the tracking record. If a buyer doesn't receive their item, eBay can't and doesn't attempt to investigate delivery. They simply go by the tracking number. They require the seller to provide a valid tracking number which confirms successful, on-time delivery to the buyer's address.
If they can't provide this, the buyer is refunded. If they can provide it, eBay closes the case in the seller's favour.
Unfortunately, the system isn't perfect. Tracking records can be erroneous, or falsified. Parcels are often left with neighbours, or in a "safe place" outside the property, to be lost or stolen. However, in accepting eBay's user agreement you also accepted their policy on "item not received" claims.
You can ony wait until after the latest estimated delivery date, and then open a case. The same would probably apply if you opened a case under PayPal's buyer protection policy. It's hard to hold the seller liable when the tracking record states that the item was correctly delivered.
Good luck anyway. By the way, if you have untrustworthy neighbours, take a look at Royal Mail's web site. You will find that, by default, their conditions of delivery allow them to leave parcels with neighbours. If you don't want this to happen, you can opt out of this condition.
