UK Retail sales down -1.1 in October

[blackcatbooksuk]

I think anyone in retail could see that drop in retail sales coming. I suspect November won't be any better. 

With that in mind, do you think once this "Never ending" wait for the budget is over that sales will pick up? Or are we just fooling ourselves with that hope and sales will stay bad through the whole Christmas period?

[theelench]

I noticed that my 'news feed' has started ramping up the 'fear/worry' stories about a 'surprise' increase in energy prices in January and 'unlimited' Council Tax increases for next April.

While the media continues with its doom and gloom messages about the next few months, I can't see people who are already hard pressed by food and energy price increases rushing to spent their shrinking disposable income on anything but basic necessities.

To me the the biggest threat spending is the continuing freeze on Tax Allowances.  If it's extended yet again, nothing will improve.  Too many people on pensions, benefits, minimum wage (or just above) are not seeing any real increase in their disposable income from year to year.  Most of any increase set by the govt. has already been taken by price increases, the rest will disappear before they get it by the increase in the tax take. 

[typo_lee]

Haha well we are down 50% on last year on here and amazon

[blackcatbooksuk]

I am currently 68% down on the previous 31 days and that was a poor month. Just no sign of buyers on here or Amazon.

[typo_lee]

How do you normally fair this time of year in past years as we are 50% down on this time last year both on ebay and amazon

[carinya.designs]

We are currently 16% this month and getting worse

[tribalgiftsuk]

Since October im about 40% down on Ebay on last year and about the same as last year on Amazon which is quiet for me there anyway as i dont have much stock listed.

I dont seeing it being amazing after the budget not with all the price increases coming next year (it will be broadband, mobile bills, council tax, water etc) which will lead to inflation increase when all the tax increases kick in. As said by @theelench  the tax threshold is a massive problem and if they don't rise nothing is going to get better any time soon.

[typo_lee]

Just been talking to my accountant and he thinks a general election won't be far off as the economy is likely to implode.

[the_book_seekers]

If the economy does implode its still hard to see how there would be an election before the 5 year fix term of this government is up. Keir Starmer could be booted out by his own party, but the conservatives gave us several unelected leaders.  There could be a no confidence vote in the government, but that would involve Labour MPs voting in numbers against their own party, which would be unlikely.  Otherwise it would be for the PM to call an early election which is also unlikely - who ever is the PM will need all the time available to turn around the mess we are in now. 

[magpiecorner1]

The freeze is already extended to April 2028.  Whilst extending it further would be a against the Government's  manifesto, keeping it for another 2 1/2 years, would not.  Any anyway, what would be the problem in breaking pledges who you have a huge majority?

[theelench]

Yes, the freeze is already in operation until 4/28 but there has been speculation that it will be extended to 2030 in the budget.

If it is I can't see discretionary spending increasing greatly because so many people don't understand it or how it affects their income.  All they understand is that they have less to spend each month.

Years ago I worked in a wages office and at intervals had to explain to employees that overtime was not taxed at a higher rate than their basic pay when they were convinced that it was.  The reason being that their Tax Allowance was used up on part of their basic pay, reducing the tax paid.  Overtime was taxed at the full rate, without any allowance so looked to be taxed at a higher rate.

Frozen allowances are also not understood and similar to the situation above.  If the govt. announced (say) a 2p rise on all tax bands people would understand better, work-out how much more they would be paying and have the confidence to (perhaps) spend the rest. 

Frozen allowances are insidious because they hide the increase.  Most people don't know how much their allowance is or how it is applied to their income, they just see their Nett pay has gone down without really understanding why.  IMO it is the uncertainty that leads many to be over cautious and reduce /stop spending.  'Just in case' things get worse in a situation that they don't fully understand and can't work out the impact of.

The govt. can push through any increase it likes with it's huge majority, but hopefully if tax is to be increased they will do it transparently and add a few pence to the tax rates rather than extend the freeze.  IMO, the uncertainty is what is killing spending, at least as much as the actual reduction in cash to spend.

[tribalgiftsuk]

We can hope for another election soon, something has got to be done. What they dont seem to understand is if people have more money in their pockets they spend more which generates more tax anyway. 

To be honest unless government spending is scaled back and councils stop spending on nonsense it is not going to get better. The country has been spending money it doesnt have but yet thinks its a great to spend on willy nilly projects in other countries 😁

[red_apple_av]

sales on eBay are dire, however Amazon is booming, I suspect its down to Amazon advertising on search engines where as ebay don't give fig and expect sellers to stump up more money to get sales.

The days of eBay are numbered if they contiue to ignore business seller concerns

[wheretheloveb]

First time in 15 years I've ever complained about poor sales on Ebay. I sell mostly niche items, collectables and often rare. Always had pretty good sales but the last six months it's been a struggle. Things that would have flown are just hanging around unsold. Many people are just not buying unless it's essential items.

The average working person  is totally screwed by this economic and political system. Cost of living, high tax and broken services, it's a total shambles. Wealth inequality I feel is running out of control and governments refuse to do anything about it because they're in the pockets of the super rich and powerful.

Just my take

[typo_lee]

Wealth inequality I see with my own eyes where I live in a very touristy part of north wales. Michelin guide restaurants are packed (ie £100 per head kinda restaurants) whereas the normal pubs restaurants are dead. Says it all really. I think a lot of it is to do with the fact that families have had their family holiday in summer which let’s be honest costs a fortune then they tighten their belts and are only buying what they need to (including Christmas presents). The only people doing well right now are millionaires, public sector and people on benefits. It now pays not to work at all 

[theelench]

I've mentioned it before, that my sales virtually stopped in April '24, at about the same time as I got HMRC Notices of Coding for my private pension and part-time job.  Reducing my Tax Codes on all my income except the State Pension.  So must have many other people.

I'm already paying BR on my job, next year that will probably be extended to the private pension.  The Freeze on allowances is beginning to bite so I now don't expect any improvement until 2032.

But it's the wrong way around, cutting the income of those at the bottom of the income ladder, while those at the top are unaffected.

Vote Tory - get Tory

Vote Labour - get Tory as well it seems.

[typo_lee]

Surely the notice of coding would only affect your eBay sales if you’re a private seller? Hmrc check how much private sellers are selling on eBay as undeclared income. Hmrc coding notices should not affect business sellers ie Likited companies Id have thought?

[theelench]

My notices of coding made me aware that I would be paying more tax as they all showed codes being lowered.

Luckily I've worked in a wages office in the past and understand what they're telling me.

IMO many people don't understand the notices or even understand how the tax system works to any great degree.  They read a few scare stories, seen their tax code go down and fear the worst.  Add that to the inflation in their cost of living and they stop spending on non-essentials.

As a private seller my tax code has nothing to do with my sales.  But, for the reasons above, my buyers have mostly just stopped buying, probably because many of them are either pensioners or nearing retirement.

[typo_lee]

My buyers are young people who buy personalised cycling stickers off us (not pensioners) and sales have crashed 60% since end of september. So its an economy wide issue not just pensioners not spending! There are families struggling as well.

[theelench]

I'm not saying that it's only pensioners that are suffering, just that my buyers are probably mostly pensioners and that they seem to have stopped spending.  I'm sure that many families and younger people are struggling as well and are also cutting back on their discretional spending as bills rise.

One explanation is possibly that most younger people are either employed or running businesses.  They will either be getting regular pay slips or, if running a business have their eyes on sales and like you, know that their income is falling as they pay more tax.

I'm probably fairly typical of pensioners.  I get the State Pension that never sends out any pay advice beyond an annual letter to tell me what I will be paid each month for the following year.  I'm lucky enough to also have a private works pension, they also send me an annual letter to tell how much it will increase the following year and an end of year P60 to tell me how much tax I paid.  But nothing in between.

Many pensioners will just be aware that money is getting tighter, but without the regular figures to fully understand why.

Freezing the tax thresholds is insidious IMO in that the tax take rises but in a way that is all but invisible to many who are paying it.