Estimated delivery dates (yes again)

[darth_baggins]

I know this has been done to death and eBay staff just repeat the 'working as intended' mantra but this simply can't be right.

I bought something from a seller I get supplies from more than a week ago and it's still not arrived. I realise delays are inevitable at this time of year but I thought I'd just check the EDD and I'm gobsmacked by the disparity between his and mine.

Ordered on November 27, seller has a 1 day / same day handling time and posts 1st class, yet the EDD for my order is December 5th - 8th.

I compared one of my listing to his.

Seller - as above - same day dispatch before 3:30pm, sent 1st class. EDD is December 12th to 15th, so basically at least a week to arrive.

My listing - five working days handling time and I send 2nd class. EDD is December 8th to 13th. So eBay as usual are telling buyers they may get the item before I even have to post it.

So a seller with same day dispatch and 1st class post gets longer EDD than a seller with 5 day dispatch and 2nd class post.

I know they're supposed to be 'dynamic' but there's just no way that this can be described as 'working as intended'.

[bravergrace]

It's beyond a joke.

I had an order yesterday - marked (correctly) dispatch by the 6th, 2nd class post.

ETA 6th-7th.

So I'm obliged to post on my day off, and/or to upgrade the postage at my expense.

If I do either, and it arrives by the 7th, then I'm committed to never having a day off, ever again - and if I don't do it, I'm risking the entire selling price of the item, plus the postage.

To be frank, I've no objection to this system as long as eBay apply it across the board:

- If their part-time staff work 3 days a week, or if a senior manager takes a week's holiday, they should (by the same principle) be penalised if they don't do a full day's work on their days off, and should also be docked pay for the next 3 months.

Fair's fair.

[pg_kicks]

Do you normally take the 5 days to post? I've always understood it that eBay dont take any notice of your dispatch time and the service you actually select and its all down to your past history, if you are normally shipping within 2 days and sending 1st class so buyer gets it say in 2 days then eBay will tell buyers they are likely to get it within 3-5 business days. I know it doesnt actually add up to what they are saying but thats how I read it. If I ever need to go out buying overnight I just extend my dispatch time from same day to 3 days but the estimated delivery never changes for buyers.

[ducatimondo]

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@darth_baggins wrote:

I know this has been done to death and eBay staff just repeat the 'working as intended' mantra but this simply can't be right.

I know they're supposed to be 'dynamic' but there's just no way that this can be described as 'working as intended'.

---

If it is working as intended and it does not work, then one can only deduct that it is intended to not work.

Unfortunately, we cannot argue with physics.

I did algebra at school though and it really is not rocket science.
A + B = C

A = handling time from seller

B = delivery time from delivery company

C = total time to arrive

Why is it so much more complicated than this?

We had a phone call from a customer in Belgium yesterday that was asking about how long his item may take to arrive. I had to answer honestly, that I really do not know. What I do know though is that it is not likely to arrive when eBay estimated it to arrive, as the estimated delivery on his orders shows as being 25th December...

So there you go, eBay are not even factoring in Christmas Day as a day when there is no post being delivered; so we literally have no hope do we?

[darth_baggins]

No I don't take 5 days to post, it's just there as a buffer but eBay ignore it. I'm aware of how they work it out, so one could say I'm being penalised for offering good service.

The seller I mentioned gets protection from INRs being opened for far longer than I do yet claims to post same day and sends 1st class.

It just doesn't add up.

[pg_kicks]

It kinda does add up just doesnt match what eBay are telling us, which is annoying.

You are basically punished for doing better than you offer, if you were to take the 5 days from the start then I'm guessing your EDD would be correct but if you start now you will just be open to INR which would be a joke. I cant see eBay changing it though. Maybe ask tomorrow in the weekly chat, see if you get a new copy and paste reply, as annoying as it is to others I think raising it in the weekly chat every week might be the only solution long term.

[theelench]

In my experience it doesn't make any difference.

Ebay correctly tells me to dispatch by midnight on the second of my two day dispatch window, but I still usually post on the first day.  Ebay consistently tells the buyer it will be delivered on the day after my dispatch window closes or the following day.  Even though 2nd class is estimated by RM to have 2- 3 days delivery.

But a couple of times this year due to medical appointments, I haven't been able to post until day two.

Didn't make any difference to sales after the change, the FDD was exactly the same as above.  So the "calculation" ignores changes that should lengthen the FDD (in my case) and just spews out the same nonsense as per normal.

During the year I did have one anomaly out of my 13 sales. For no apparent reason, like Bank Holidays, sales on a different day of the week etc., the FDD Shown To Buyer was increased by one day.  I couldn't see any reason why as everything was exactly the same as previously.

Perhaps it was the "dynamic" calculation kicking in and taking account of a previous slower dispatch due to an appointment.  But as my sales are generally weeks, if not a month or more apart, to me that is as dynamic as a geriatric snail.  That's if it was the "calculation" at all, it might just have another glitch or someone at ebay towers tinkering again.  I think that's more likely as I've had several "days off" but been blessed with an FDD approaching sensible only on that one occasion.

Yes, do please keep asking questions because whatever way I look at it, it isn't working anything like "correctly".

[badger_3d]

The whole thing is utterly broken.

We ran a double shift the other day to catch up on orders for another platform and added some eBay orders to the production run.

They've been sat on the shelf awaiting posting since yesterday, we daren't send them in case the eBay algorithm sees us dispatching two days early and translates that into knocking 1 week off our EDD, like they did last year.

Bobbins.

[cactuscollarsleads]

I get the same with the difference in my 'post by' and what the customer is told. Had a bunch recently so my standard answer to 'not arrived yet' queries is to say 'ebays fault', point out my 5 day despatch and RM 2/3 day delivery and then copy/paste the bit off order print out that I get stating the post by which is after they are told to expect it. So far replies have been along the lines of -OK, fine, Oh they are at it again or I should have known it was them again etc.

[the_book_seekers]

ebay claims EDDs is based on when we post and other mysterious factors. Having moved to a rural area 18 months ago which means a round trip of 15 to 20 miles to the closest post office I've cut how often I post. I used to have a 3 mile round trip and would post same/next day. This is no longer economically or environmentally practical and I haven't posted as frequently since the move. ebay's EDDs don't reflect the change and are as tight if no tighter than ever. I regularly receive messages to post quicker/free/tracked so I don't believe there is any estimation in the EDDs, they are what ebay expects them to be. 

[goingfishinguk]

Why should the delivery dates be dynamic?  My two day processing time is fixed, not dynamic.  My postal service is (supposedly) fixed 48 hours and not dynamic.  All the factors that go into making these EDDs are fixed.  So how realistically can the output be dynamic? i.e. eBay's estimated delivery date?

[theelench]

Precisely.

On another "FDDs" thread, someone posted a quote from ebay detailing the variables that are supposed to be taken into account, which are:

1.  Sellers dispatch window.

2.  Sellers previous dispatch performance.

3.  Delivery services offered.

4.  Delivery companies previous delivery performance.

5.  Buyers address.

Plus "other factors" which ebay has not revealed.

As per my post above, in my case 1 and 3 have remained the same.

2, 4 and 5 have changed through the year, sometimes with every sale.  But, with one anomalous exception, the result of the "calculation" is always the same.

I'm told to dispatch by midnight on day two of my dispatch window.  The buyer is told to expect delivery the day after or the following day at the latest or the parcel is "late".   Nothing is being dynamically taken into account.

This so called calculation is just a way of bamboozling sellers into posting Same Day as the sale and/or using quicker/more expensive delivery options.  Or suffer the consequences of "failure"  --  increased fees.

IMO  THAT is what this 💩 is all about, either way the result will be more fees for ebay and that is all ebay is interested in these days, increasing fee revenue from shrinking sales.

That it's so desperate to do so that it's willing to lie to buyers, pull the wool over sellers eyes, further discredit ebays reliability as a site and probably further reduce sales by doing so shows just how low it has sunk.

[darth_baggins]

Asked on the weekly chat. Got fobbed off with a non-answer, as usual.

[bravergrace]

I'd say you got - if not an answer, at least a hint or indication, that the problem will go away if you mark stuff as dispatched on the day it's due to be dispatched, and not before that date.

This may of course cause its own problems, but some posters say they NEVER mark goods as dispatched or enter tracking numbers, and this reduces the opportunities for the Seller Punishment Schemes to berate them for "lower delivery standards than last week" or whatever the current buzzword is.

[darth_baggins]

In the meantime, I still haven't got the stuff I ordered on November 27th, was marked dispatched on November 28th by 1st class post, and I can't open an INR (if I wanted to) until December 9th.

But my buyers can expect to receive their item before I post it.

Smashing.

[bravergrace]

To be fair to eBay, I think this is an unintended consequence of their very sensible intentions to give good information to buyers and to encourage sales from sellers who post on time.

Parcels arriving early can result in theft, rain damage, or stuff being emptied into the cardboard recycling van.  For many people, large parcels or heavy arriving early are a nuisance, because not everyone can carry a wardrobe up two flights of stairs or shift a car engine off their doorstep without assistance.

eBay has a long-standing policy of penalising sellers whose parcels consistently arrive late, by adding a week to their ETAs, to divert sales to more efficient sellers - and to discourage Chinese sellers from misstating their location as the UK.

The trouble is, that eBay don't know when to stop.  The responsible team actually think they are doing us a favour by promising buyers next day delivery for 2nd class post, or dispatch before the due date.  We sellers know this leads to disappointed buyers, extra returns, INR cases and all the rest of it, causing inconvenience and expense to us - and our customers (who have to source alternatives elsewhere to meet their own deadline).

eBay really do seem to believe we sellers are capable of continuous and unlimited improvement - and think they are rewarding us for good performance by promising our customers their items will arrive before they are dispatched.

The problem could be mitigated if only eBay treated their ETAs as ETAs and not guarantees (underwritten by sellers) to deliver stuff before we've undertaken to deliver it.

[darth_baggins]

An interesting take. My view is more cynical. eBay probably have data that suggests buyers are likely to purchase if the EDD is shorter (obviously) so they make it shorter to get more sales.

Sellers have to deal with the fallout from this at no cost to eBay, so eBay don't really care. It's all about getting more sales, sellers are just collateral damage.

[theelench]

As always what you say is eminently reasonable and guided by a common sense approach, but  --

Yes, ebay does have "a long standing policy of penalising sellers whose parcels consistently arrive late," for the good reasons you give. 

But now, more sellers than ever are perceived by ebay, as having consistently late deliveries.  Sellers who, until this 'calculation' was foisted on them, didn't have late deliveries.   Their problems have been created solely by an un-necessary over-tightening of delivery dates for all sellers, guilty or not of persistent late deliveries, to the point where ebays EDDs are unrealistic.   

Surely it is possible to have EDDs that distinguish between sellers who consistently do their best and have mitigating circumstances for occasional lateness and foreign or "couldn't care less" sellers who are truly persistently late?

I disagree with your last sentence, but only because of your use of the word "mitigated".  In my case and I'm sure in that of many other sellers, the 'problem' would entirely disappear if only ebay would add my (2 day) dispatch window to RMs 2-3 day delivery estimate and get 5 days.  Not the FDD they consistently tell the buyer of 4 days. 

IMO there is really no reason, or point, for ebay to continue with the farce of pretending that there is a "complicated calculation".  All ebay needs to do is tell buyers the truth  --  my EDD is 5 days.  If they want their parcel quicker, they can ask me to send it by a different service or find a seller who offers one.  If they buy from me and they don't get the parcel within the five days, ONLY THEN am I at fault, not because ebays fanciful calculation says so.

[bravergrace]

"Over-tightening of delivery dates for all sellers" - yes, that's very true.

But what can we, as sellers, do about it - apart from not entering tracking or marking stuff as dispatched?

I had three late sales yesterday afternoon, due for dispatch today and tomorrow.  Nothing else to do, so I packed and posted them.   No skin off my nose, gives them a sporting chance of arriving on time.

In the past, it would have given them a sporting chance of arriving EARLY - but the current system is ludicrous.  eBay doesn't distinguish between stuff I can pop in an envelope and chuck in a postbox and stuff that needs me to obtain special packaging, and spend several hours packing.   And eBay ignores my days off.  

Sometimes I choose to work on my days off.  Sometimes I don't.  As far as I'm concerned, that should be entirely my decision, and eBay should stop trying to force me to work 7 days a week, and post 4 o'clock sales the same day.  

I hate my customers getting worried because they need their stuff for their big event and it hasn't arrived.  But every time I upgrade the postage or post early, I'm making a rod for my own back.

[pg_kicks]

100% agree on this, but the issue is when you change your dispatch time nothing changes on the estimated delivery.

A better way would be for eBay to determine how long it takes for your parcel to be delivered from when you have marked it as dispatched to the confirmation of delivery, then add on your dispatch time so if for any reason you need to change it then that gets added on. If you send via an untracked service you then just have your dispatch time plus whatever length of time they have for each service. 

They have made a very simple job into something so complicated it wont ever be fixed unless they start again.