Brexit

[guitarsandwoods]

Hello everyone,

I searched the forums about this and did not find anything, and I believe it is an interesting subject to dscuss, as the referendum approaches.

I know it can be a touchy subject, but I wonder what your thoughts about it? Will it change in any way the relationship with the European Union? Can this subject harm or benefit your business?

Disclaimer: I am not interested in anything political side of the issue, only the economic side.

Thank you.

[astrologica]

A great speech by Mr Farage this morning in Brussels! At his very best...telling them exactly how it is.....worth a watch!

[astrologica]

Meanwhile....Jeremy Hunt is suggesting we can leave it until 2020 to invoke Article 50, Another 4 years of uncertainty....we need to get on with it now. 

[brandyknackers]

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@astrologica wrote:

Meanwhile....Jeremy Hunt is suggesting we can leave it until 2020 to invoke Article 50, Another 4 years of uncertainty....we need to get on with it now. 

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When are these plonkers going to wake up and smell the coffee?

[mikes*corvettes]

Does Hunt think that the EU will still be alive in 2020.

[evoman3957]

Oh you mean Mr. Hunt the unifier, whose undoubtedly got private health insurance; because he's got a fat chance of being treated, if he walked into an NHS Hospital.

[sellsoldstough]

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@al**bear wrote:

S&P Strips U.K. of Triple-A Credit Rating

Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings stripped the U.K. of its pristine triple-A credit rating on Monday, following through on its warning that last week’s vote to leave the European Union threatens the country’s constitutional and economic integrity.

The firm, which cut the country’s ratings by two notches to double-A, also said the vote for “remain” in Scotland and Northern Ireland creates wider constitutional issues for the country as a whole.

Fitch Ratings followed suit, cutting the country’s ratings by one notch, also to double-A. The firm pointed to the uncertainty following the referendum outcome, which Fitch predicted would lead to “an abrupt slowdown” in growth as businesses defer investment.

The outlook on the ratings at both credit firms is negative, which signals a potential for additional downgrades.

The U.K.’s surprise vote to leave the EU has rattled stock, currency and debt markets around the world, and led to a political upheaval in the U.K.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-strips-u-k-of-triple-a-credit-rating-1467050234

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How does that work then?

One lot downgrades "two notches" to AA from AAA.

Another lot downgrades "one notch" to AA.

So the second lot must have had us at AAa (i.e. 2.5 notches above standard?)

Is this where Ebay got its idea for star ratings?

How far do we have to drop before we get banned for life?

[evoman3957]

Yes, Mr. Farage's speech was powerful and did make a point; although it met with a lot of heckling and booing.  I wonder if all these booers and hecklers, will show as much contrition; as WW2 concentration camp guards did, when they were eventually in the dock............wetting their pants and pleading that they were only following the party ( EU ) line.

...........and please......somebody explain the stance of northern Ireland to me in all this.  Their MEP stands up and says the same as the Scottish MEP did, about how THEY voted ( practically en masse ) to stay in the EU; so they hope some deal can be done, so they don't have to go along with the overall democratic vote of the UK.............So let me get this straight, during the troubles in Northern Ireland, IRA, bombings, shooting, etc. etc. ALL this was because the Northern Irish did NOT WANT unification with Southern Ireland, but instead wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom. So having DRAGGED mainland Britain into THEIR conflict ( and I don't remember US having a referendum, as to whether we were particularly happy about that ) they NOW DON'T want to be part of the UK; but want to remain part of the EU........so all those people who were killed were a total waste of life. They might as well unify with southern Ireland and remain in the EU and if any MORE blood is spilt, it WON'T be English or Welsh........they can spill each others..............Jesus, some people just aren't worth SPIT !!

[mikes*corvettes]

Evoman, can you please give a brief synopsis of the speech as I wont get a chance to view it at the moment, thanks.

[evoman3957]

Well, briefly , he started by saying that when he told the EU ( 17 years ago ) that his mission was to try to get the UK to leave; they ( the EU assembly ) laughed at him, he said " You're not laughing now are you ".  He went on to say now detached they had become from ordinary people and how those ordinary " little " people had spoken. He said how their ridiculous policy on immigration ( exacerbated by the free movement policy ) and Merkel's open arm invite, to practically anybody who could walk, had brought about the immigration crisis. He said any vindictiveness by them ( from a trade point of view ) would harm them as much as us  and cited Germany's Car industry as an example, he actually said " If you want to cut off your noses to spite you faces ". He said we would remain their friends......their " Best Friends " as he put it and we would continue to co-operate with them, but we wanted our Country back and to be allowed to shape our own destiny.

[evoman3957]

Oh and he made a prophecy, that we wouldn't be the last to leave the EU...........that met with a few boos and jeers; but there were a few stoney faces, among those with more than 1 brain cell........that could actually see the possibility.

[john.b74]

ITV News 1 hr · Nigel Farage taunts MEPs at the European Parliament who "laughed" at him 17 years ago for wanting to take the UK out of the EU. "You're not laughing now," he said. http://bit.ly/297n4cJ

[mikes*corvettes]

Thanks, excellent.

[mikes*corvettes]

Well worth a read.

http://reason.com/archives/2016/06/27/elitist-rage-over-brexit

[evoman3957]

Life's Equation :

Money = Power

Power = Disconnection, Arrogance, a God complex and an inflated sense of worth = Corruption

Corruption = More Money

Thereby being self fulfilling, just like it's worshippers

and I happen to have had an education every bit as good ( some would say as elitist ) as they have, I just remember where my family came from.........their and MY " Roots ".

[suzieseaside]

It’s sad to read about the family splits that the referendum has caused, where some young people say they are disgusted with the fascist stupid older generation, including their parents.   Could they have made a difference if they had all bothered to vote?

Some rough calculations which I admit do have to make some assumptions as the available data are not exact:

According to the Office for National Statistics projections of UK demographics from 2014, the following numbers are given:

20-24 age group – 4.253 million

15-19 age group – 3.755 million

In the latter 5 year group an approximate estimate of 18-19 year olds would be 40% of 3.755 million = 1.502 million

So total of 18-24 age group ≈ 5.755 million

It has been estimated that only 36% of the 18-24 age group bothered to vote.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-referendum-brexit-young-people-upset-by-the-outcome-of-the-eu...

IF the other 64% had registered and voted (either directly or by proxy), that would be 3.68 million more votes. 

But wait, not all of the population above 18 years old here can be eligible to vote.  I suppose some can’t be eligible to register for various reasons as well as those who haven't bothered. From the ONS in 2016 the population aged 18 and above is ≈ 51.39 million, and the total electorate in the referendum was 46.50 million, which is 90.5% of the population above 18 years old.

There is no way of knowing what proportion of 18-24 year olds here aren’t qualified to register even if they wanted to, or haven't registered by choice, but if  we take  90.5% of the 3.68 million potential extra votes that would leave approximately 3.33 million unused votes in this age group.

Obviously not all of the 64% that didn’t bother to vote would have voted 100% to leave.  If we assume that the percentage of results from the non-voters in that age group would be similar to the estimates of the ones that did turn out to vote (75% remain : 25% leave)  there would be approximately another 2.5 million more votes to remain, and 0.83 million more to leave.  That would make the Total votes 18.2 million to Leave, 18.6 million to Remain.  Perhaps too close to call, only 0.4 million difference, and 0.01% of the total vote (0.4 out of 36.8 million), but Remain could have won.

A lot of assumptions I know, and no doubt some flaws which I would be happy for anyone to correct me on, but given that the difference between Leave and Remain was only 1.27 million votes it seems quite feasible that the 18-24 year olds could have swung the vote and made a difference if far more of them had participated in the process.  

[john.b74]

A lot of assumptions I know, and no doubt some flaws which I would be happy for anyone to correct me on, but given that the difference between Leave and Remain was only 1.27 million votes it seems quite feasible that the 18-24 year olds could have swung the vote and made a difference if far more of them had participated in the process. ,,,...... Its very hard to get out off bed to vote..

[theelench]

Don't know for sure but my guess is they use different computer models and end up with a different scale.  Whatever,  these are the same bunch of people that helped to cause the last financial crisis by giving dodgy (sub-prime) mortgage derivatives AAA status.

Their ratings are supposed to be an assessment of how likely the creditor (UKGovt) is of being able to repay the loan.  They see everything in terms of risk.  They assess that leaving the EU makes the risk of default greater so our credit rating goes down.

If they had been around back then they would have said that the invention of the wheel would cause instability and down-graded the kings credit rating.

The pound is said to have slumped, crashed, plumeted etc, etc.  It looks to me like its value against the dollar has dropped a few cents.  But that doesn't make a good headline.

The same with stock markets taking fright.  "Billions wiped off share values as markets crash" but it doesnt mention that the total value of the market is in trillions.  "Barclays Bank shares suspended as value plummets by x%" sounds catastrophic, in reality they fell by pennies

Markets always over react to any news, good or bad.  A good dollop of hysteria and panic sets in triggering a wave of selling, who benefits?  The super rich who quietly buy up more of the world on the cheap.

[john.b74]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662545/How-hackers-hijacked-petition-demanding-second-EU-re...

[sellsoldstough]

"IF the other 64% had registered and voted (either directly or by proxy), that would be 3.68 million more votes."

That would be to assume that 100% of those in that age group who were eligible to vote would have done so, would it not?

If so, then your final figure would be a bit too high. How about re-doing the calculation using 75%, or whatever the turnout of the remainder (not the population as a whole because that figure was skewed by the low % of 18-24s) of the poulation was?

But your argument is a strong one nevertheless, and does highlight the difficulty of making democracy work.

But going off on a bit of a tangent for now, was it sufficient to just ask yes or no, in or out? It is now becoming apparent that the question was too simple. An opportunity was missed to find out what the public will is concerning whether the negotiations should be about leaving the single market or staying in, and whether we are OK with free movement for EU citizens or not?

[notinbidensgarage]

Now that England is no longer in Europe [] and the borders have been slammed shut on us, does it mean we cannot visit Mickey Mouse in Disneyland and ask him to be the next England football team Manager?

Spoiler