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bookhunter2007 · ‎18-06-2014

The British public are increasingly positive about staying in the Union – according to research into how people would vote in an in/out EU membership referendum. YouGov’s latest poll for The Sun finds an eight point lead for those who want Britain to remain in the European Union, the largest lead recorded since YouGov first asked the question in September 2010. 44% would now vote to stay in the Union, while 36% would vote to leave.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/17/eu-referendum-record-lead/

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100276617/is-ukip-putting-voters-off-euroscepticism/

sir_arthur_strebe-grebling · ‎18-06-2014

Isn't that interesting? Looks like the Conservatives will think they are on to a winner with their 'renegotiate then referendum' policy.

What are the reasons for the previous spikes in 'stay in EU' in around December 2011 and January 2013? I don't know what EU-related news might have shifted public opinion at those times.

bookhunter2007 · ‎18-06-2014

@sir_arthur_strebe-grebling wrote:
What are the reasons for the previous spikes in 'stay in EU' in around December 2011 and January 2013? I don't know what EU-related news might have shifted public opinion at those times.

Only things around those times was Cameron using the UK's Veto, and his UK/EU speech:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/09/david-cameron-blocks-eu-treaty

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21013771

2017clearout · ‎18-06-2014

Hasn't there been some research also that shows, by and large, British voters prefer not to take "big" decisions in referenda because of the role the unknown plays? It was before I was born, but wasn't the vote for the EEC about a customs' union, rather than the federalist set up we have now (even though, if you look at people like Monnet, you can see this is the apogee of the European project)? So, in essence, people were asked to vote for a small change with a knowable outcome, rather than a large chance where the outcome is uncertain- because the evidence suggests that the electorate would be less likely to vote for that.

I'm not sure whether it's UKIP or uncertainty that's produced these polls, though!

confusedjohn · ‎18-06-2014

Interesting, as we only have a year to go before the election, who knows how this chart will differ in the near future.

bookhunter2007 · ‎18-06-2014

@hefzi wrote:
It was before I was born, but wasn't the vote for the EEC about a customs' union, rather than the federalist set up we have now (even though, if you look at people like Monnet, you can see this is the apogee of the European project)? So, in essence, people were asked to vote for a small change with a knowable outcome, rather than a large chance where the outcome is uncertain- because the evidence suggests that the electorate would be less likely to vote for that.

Good point. I think demographics might play a minor part here too, in that those who originally voted to join the EEC are now much older. They have since felt "conned" which has subsequently hardened their Eurosceptic sentiment, whereas younger people have grown up more accustomed to the EU as they know it now. Thus a part of the decline in Eurosceptism could simply be older people starting to meet their maker, although I wouldn've expected a more gradual change over time if this was the case.

On the other hand, it can't really help UKIP and their cause when they start buddying up to European Parties known for their fondness for Sieg Heiling and Jackboots!

sir_arthur_strebe-grebling · ‎18-06-2014

@bookhunter2007 wrote:
@sir_arthur_strebe-grebling wrote:
What are the reasons for the previous spikes in 'stay in EU' in around December 2011 and January 2013? I don't know what EU-related news might have shifted public opinion at those times.
Only things around those times was Cameron using the UK's Veto, and his UK/EU speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/09/david-cameron-blocks-eu-treaty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21013771

Thanks but that seems to imply that, when things are going badly in the relations between UK and EU (therefore using our veto and making speeches about how bad the EU currently is), the British public support for staying in goes up!

bookhunter2007 · ‎18-06-2014

Thanks but that seems to imply that, when things are going badly in the relations between UK and EU (therefore using our veto and making speeches about how bad the EU currently is), the British public support for staying in goes up!

That would explain the two spikes you mentioned, but not for the 2014+ period. The only other major factor which could come into play here is the Ukraine crisis. The idea of EU disintegration combined with Putin's sabre-rattling probably doesn't bode well in the mind of most voters. Two of the biggest winners of an EU collapse are Putin & Nationalist parties. It's not surprising they're flirting with each other: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117838/putins-far-right-european-admirers-run-european-parliament...

2017clearout · ‎19-06-2014

Russians do seem to like their strong leaders - even when they are downright creepy. And as for the rise of the Far Right - I guess it's linked in some way to the economy, as it seems historically, there's often a connection. And you could well be right that the combination of the two is making people pause on our relationship with the EU, come to think of it. I see Turkey's started on again about potentially joining (well, not that they ever really gave up, but it's been quieter in recent years), and Cameron seems to be cosying up to the Albanians - so there could still be everything to play for...

On a totally different, but still slightly connected note, pretty much every time I get in a cab in Liverpool, I have drivers telling me that they're Labour until the die - and then saying things (I live in an interesting part of town) that would make the BNP blush: so the whole on-off Europe thing may anyway be far from rational and considered!