Was there a fairly recent change whereby eBay refunded in these circumstances, or I am just imagining things?

You didn't imagine it https://community.ebay.co.uk/t5/Announcements/Extended-Item-Not-Received-protections/ba-p/7935421 From November 2025: If tracking shows delivered within 30 days after a seller has refunded, eBay will reimburse the item cost and remove any negative or neutral feedback directly linked to the claim and regarding delivery. Are you covered? You qualify automatically when you meet the following criteria: Item dispatched within your stated handling time. Used a...

Refunded item subsequently arrived... | Seller Central

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Refunded item subsequently arrived... | Seller Central | eBay UK